– Western sources claim Russia is using up to 3,000 glide bombs per month;
– Western sources also claim Russia is producing up to 4.5 million rounds per year, more than the collective West will be producing once production expansion targets are achieved in 2-3 years;
– Because both munitions have proven decisive and the collective West is incapable of matching Russian production, it is clear that in this war of attrition Russia has the decisive advantage;
– It should be remembered that according to US policy papers, the goal was never for Ukraine to “win,” but simply incur a steep enough cost on Russia to perhaps precipitate a Soviet Union-style collapse, though such a prospect seems more and more remote;
References:
Sky News – Russia is producing artillery shells around three times faster than Ukraine’s Western allies and for about a quarter of the cost (May 26, 2024):
https://news.sky.com/story/russia-is-producing-artillery-shells-around-three-times-faster-than-ukraines-western-allies-and-for-about-a-quarter-of-the-cost-13143224
Politico – EU doles out €500M for artillery ammunition and missiles as it seeks to match Russia (March 15, 2024):
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-doles-out-e500m-for-artillery-ammo-and-missiles-as-it-seeks-to-match-russia/
VOA – Without More Funds, US Unable to Hit Ammunition Production Goals (March 1, 2024):
https://www.voanews.com/a/without-more-funds-us-unable-to-hit-ammunition-production-goals/7510881.html
Reuters – Inside Europe’s drive to get ammunition to Ukraine as Russia advances (March 6, 2024):
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/inside-europes-drive-get-ammunition-ukraine-russia-advances-2024-03-06/
BBC – Russia’s glide bombs devastating Ukraine’s cities on the cheap (May 19, 2024):
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz5drkr8l1ko
Defense Express – Spending Dozens of Glide Bombs a Day, russians Struggle to Deal With Critical Problems of Their Creation (May 2023):
https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/spending_dozens_of_glide_bombs_a_day_russians_struggle_to_deal_with_critical_problems_of_their_creation-6587.html
RUSI – Jamming JDAM: The Threat to US Munitions from Russian Electronic Warfare (June 2023):
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/jamming-jdam-threat-us-munitions-russian-electronic-warfare
Reuters – Russia intercepts five HIMARS, JDAM bomb, 37 drones over Ukraine in last 24 hours (October 2023):
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-intercepts-five-himars-jdam-bomb-37-drones-over-ukraine-last-24-hours-2023-10-01/
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