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Why Ukraine’s 2024 Strategy Will Fail & Why Isolating Crimea is Impossible

Why Ukraine’s 2024 Strategy Will Fail

– Ukrainian President Vlodymr Zelensky laid out Ukraine’s 2024 strategy in a recent interview with The Economist;

– The focus will be on “isolating” Crimea;

– Crimea can be supplied entirely by sea and air, with any single port exceeding the capacity Russia required to sustain combat operations in Syria for 2015;

– Without enough long-range missiles to attack all or at least most of Crimea’s ports and airfields and do so regularly, Russia will be able to maintain the flow of supplies for both the civilian population and Russia’s military presence on the peninsula;

– Another popular strategy of “digging in” and “building” throughout 2024 is also disconnected from the realities of the conflict and both Ukraine’s and its Western sponsors’ capabilities;

– Ukraine has already “dug in” since 2014 in frontline cities which Russia has nonetheless been able to displace Ukrainian forces and take these heavily fortified cities;

References:

The Economist – A New Year’s interview with Volodymyr Zelensky (January 1, 2024):
https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/01/01/a-new-years-interview-with-volodymr-zelensky
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty – Ukrainian Air Force Claims Destruction Of Russian Ship In Crimea; Moscow Confirms Missile Strike (December 26, 2023):
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-crimea-russian-ship-destroyed-novocherkassk/32747629.html
Crimean Seaports – Kerch Trading Port (Archived 2022):
https://web.archive.org/web/20221013012833/https://crimeaports.ru/en/affiliates/kerch-trading-port
Crimean Seaports – Feodossian Trading Port (archived 2022):
https://web.archive.org/web/20221012072818/https://crimeaports.ru/en/affiliates/feodossian-trading-port
Investment Portal of the Republic of Crimea – Simferopol International Airport:
https://invest-in-crimea.ru/en/istorii-uspeha/simferopol-international-airport-largest-private-investment-project-history-crimea
Institute for the Study of War – THE RUSSIAN MILITARY’S LESSONS LEARNED IN SYRIA (January 2021):
https://www.understandingwar.org/report/russian-military’s-lessons-learned-syria
RAND Corporation – Extending Russia, Competing from Advantageous Ground (2019):
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html

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