– An “expert” from a US government and arms industry-funded think tank (ASPI) has been used to lend credibility to Israel’s denial of striking the Al Ahli Hospital in Gaza;
– the “open source” analysis attempted to estimate the number of people who could have fit into the area where there is visible fire damage;
– in reality, blasts from rockets, missiles, and artillery shells cause fragmentation and shrapnel traveling far beyond the blast and capable of causing lethal injuries;
– a hand grenade has a comparable death radius to that laid out in this analysis;
– a hand grenades casualty radius is even larger;
– a rocket or missile would have surely killed far more people in a much wider radius than claimed by this analysis;
– the density of civilians surrounding the hospital is also questioned in the analysis, however footage is easily obtainable from Gaza of similar densities specifically at hospitals;
References:
Australian Financial Review – The 26-year-old analyst who shaped the world’s view of Gaza (October 22, 2023):
https://www.afr.com/world/middle-east/the-26-year-old-analyst-who-shaped-the-world-s-view-of-gaza-20231020-p5edqh
Nathan Ruser – October 18, 2023 thread on Gaza hospital strike:
🧵Now that day has broken, and we're getting better evidence, I'm willing to share some PRELIMINARY thoughts on the al-Ahli hospital explosion. The photos of the scene are, to me, not consistent with an airstrike and are not consistent with claims that 500+ people were killed. pic.twitter.com/dzA3Bx71hr
— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) October 18, 2023
Australian Strategic Policy Institute – Funding 2021-2022:
https://ad-aspi.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/2023-02/ASPI-Funding_2021-2022.pdf?VersionId=uBgzvRFMWrzTqZfbQldVtdteieW95Ns1
Times of Israel – IDF: Multiple rocket launcher used to target Hamas in Gaza for first time since 2006 (October 11, 2023):
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-multiple-rocket-launcher-used-to-target-hamas-in-gaza-for-first-time-since-2006/
CBS News – Hamas, Israel trade blame for Gaza hospital blast (October 18, 2023):
Guardian – ‘Emphasis is on damage, not accuracy’: ground offensive into Gaza seems imminent (October 10, 2023):
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/10/right-now-it-is-one-day-at-a-time-life-on-israels-frontline-with-gaza
Guardian – Al-Ahli Arab hospital: piecing together what happened as Israel insists militant rocket to blame (October 18, 2023):
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/18/al-ahli-arab-hospital-piecing-together-what-happened-as-israel-insists-militant-rocket-to-blame
World Health Organization – Evacuation orders by Israel to hospitals in northern Gaza are a death sentence for the sick and injured (October 14, 2023):
https://www.who.int/news/item/14-10-2023-evacuation-orders-by-israel-to-hospitals-in-northern-gaza-are-a-death-sentence-for-the-sick-and-injured
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